Supply/Demand

The third quarter of 2025 saw a well-supplied global bauxite market, with rising shipments and solid Chinese imports. Guinea remained the dominant supplier, accounting for over 15.9 Mt of China’s imports in July and 12.3 Mt in August. Total Guinean shipments reached roughly 117.1 Mt in the first eight months of 2025, up 28.7% year-on-year, while new output from Nimba Mining SA and Axis Minerals posed further downside risks to prices. Australia also expanded supply, with Metro Mining achieving record Q3 shipments of 2.3 Mt from its Bauxite Hills project.

On the demand side, China’s refinery expansions in Hebei and Guangxi continued to drive import growth, while outside China, India’s development momentum was tempered by project delays. Bauxite supply is poised to strengthen in the coming months as Guinea transitions out of its rainy season.

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Prices

There were broad-based quarterly declines across major bauxite benchmarks in Q3 2025 as global supply continued to expand, outweighing robust Chinese demand and lingering geopolitical uncertainty. Early-quarter softness reflected strong shipments and steady import flows, while August and September saw further pressure from record Australian exports and increased availability from Guinea despite its wet season.

Australia’s FOB price fell 11.1% QoQ to US$57.67/mt, though still 39.5% higher YoY. Guinea’s Boke FOB was down 16.4% QoQ to US$52.50/mt yet remained 17.5% above last year. Brazil’s Trombetas FOB eased 8.5% QoQ to US$39.50/mt, while China’s CIF price recorded the steepest decline, falling 17.4% QoQ to US$70.57/mt, but up 6.2% YoY. Jamaica’s export price mirrored the trend, falling 8.5% QoQ to US$35.55/mt, with a 7.7% YoY increase.

Average Bauxite Prices – US$/Tonne (FOB)