Supply

Global aluminium production rose to 18,801 kt in Q3 2025, up 2.3% QoQ and 1.8% YoY, reflecting broad supply recovery following earlier maintenance curtailments. In China, output increased to 11,125 kt (+2.4% QoQ; +1.2% YoY) as smelters in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia resumed full operations amid stable power conditions and sufficient alumina supply. Although capacity additions have slowed, steady restarts kept national production at near-record levels.

Outside China, production reached 7,676 kt, expanding 2.2% QoQ and 2.8% YoY, supported by ramp-ups in Malaysia, India, and Brazil, which offset marginal European declines linked to high energy costs.

The global supply environment remained broadly balanced, aided by ample alumina availability and easing caustic soda prices. Overall, the global deficit seen in Q2 narrowed sharply, with the market shifting into a modest 123 kt surplus in Q3.

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Demand

Global aluminium consumption slipped to 18,678 kt, down 1.7% QoQ but still 0.6% higher YoY, signaling fragile demand conditions. China’s consumption fell 1.6% QoQ to 11,665 kt, following a seasonal slowdown in construction and photovoltaic output, though downstream sectors such as automotive, electronics, and packaging showed renewed strength toward quarter-end.

Outside China, consumption fell 1.9% QoQ to 7,014 kt as Europe and Japan continued to face weak industrial activity. In the United States, high tariffs under Section 232 curbed imports but encouraged limited onshoring of downstream production.

Although demand is typically expected to enter its slower season in December, Chinese consumption is forecast to perform better in Q4 compared to the World ex. China. Nevertheless, the market anticipates that underlying demand conditions will start to improve from early 2026.

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Prices

Aluminium prices consolidated across all major global markets in Q3 2025, reversing Q2’s mixed trends. Although tariff concerns capped gains, price momentum was fuelled by a weaker U.S. dollar, Chinese stimulus measures, trade deals with Japan and the EU, and supply disruptions in Guinea.

On the LME, the 3-month price averaged US$2,616.12/mt, up 6.3% QoQ and 8.1% YoY, with the cash price at US$2,616.77/mt (+7.0% QoQ), supported by anticipated Fed rate cuts and China’s plans to curb base metal growth. Aluminium prices in the U.S. were particularly robust amid tight supply and Section 232 tariffs. The U.S. Market price averaged US$4,185.71/mt, denoting 21.7% QoQ and 49.2% YoY increases, while the U.S. Transaction price came in at US$4,183.89/mt (+21.9% QoQ; +49.7% YoY).

The SHFE contracts posted modest gains, with first and third positions up 4.0% and 4.5% QoQ to US$2,894.80/mt and US$2,886.24/mt, respectively.

Looking ahead, Q4 sentiment is cautiously optimistic, though unresolved tariffs and fragile demand may limit further upside.