Supply

In Q3 2025, global alumina production rose to 36,279 kt, a 2.2% QoQ and 5.3% YoY increase, marking a new record high. Growth was led by Asia, where output climbed 2.4% QoQ to 27,277 kt, driven by fresh capacity in China and rising exports from Indonesia. China added nearly 9.8 Mtpa of new alumina capacity during the first three quarters of the year, pushing production to 21,580 kt, up 0.5% QoQ. New projects in Guangxi and ramp-ups at Jinjiang Group’s PT Borneo Alumindo Prima and Nanshan Group’s Bintan refinery also contributed to the surge.

Outside China, production rose sharply by 4.9% QoQ to 14,699 kt, supported by record output from India’s Vedanta (653 kt, up 31% YoY) and recovery across Australasia and Europe. These increases helped shift the global market from a near-balanced position in Q2 to a 129 kt surplus in Q3.

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Demand

Global alumina consumption rose modestly to 36,001 kt, up 1.5% QoQ and 3.4% YoY, trailing supply growth. China accounted for 21,180 kt, up 1.3% QoQ, driven by higher aluminium smelter output and upcoming capacity additions. Alumina inventories, however, continued to increase despite the rising consumption.

Outside China, demand increased 1.8% QoQ, with Europe and South America showing notable gains. Yet, outages at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter and uncertainty surrounding Mozambique’s Mozal smelter tempered overall growth. With production outpacing demand globally, the alumina market moved decisively into surplus, reinforcing a bearish near-term outlook heading into Q4 2025.

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Prices

There was an upswing in alumina prices in Q3 2025, reversing the steep declines of Q2, though gains were modest in several benchmarks. Early-quarter strength was supported by tighter supply, reduced output, and improved sentiment following trade agreements, but momentum faded as Asian production, particularly in Indonesia, and renewed Chinese refinery operations boosted availability. High bauxite inventories further weighed on prices through August and September.

The Platts Australia FOB price was broadly flat, rising just 0.3% QoQ to US$356.85/mt, down 29.6% YoY. The CRU Atlantic Basis gained 4.3% QoQ to US$387.18/mt, while the CRU Average Spot rose 2.6% QoQ to US$372.07/mt, both still nearly 28% lower YoY. The CRU China Basket posted the strongest quarterly increase, up 4.8% QoQ to US$445.81/mt, though it remains 18.9% below last year’s level. Jamaica’s export price tracked global trends, edging up 2.6% to US$363.78/mt QoQ but declining 9.3% YoY.

Average Metallurgical Grade Alumina Prices (US$/mt)