Global caustic soda prices weakened in Q3 2025 as subdued demand and ample supply dominated market dynamics. The U.S. Gulf spot export price fell 14.7% to US$405.00/mt, while Northwest Europe decreased by 16.1% to US$426.25/mt, reflecting weak consumption amid economic uncertainty and new trade tariffs, with sporadic outages offering only marginal support.
In Asia-Pacific, prices were mixed. Australia’s alumina-use price declined 7.3% to US$394.17/mt, pressured by abundant supply and easing demand outside alumina and nickel sectors. China’s export price slipped 2.7% to US$390.00/mt after early weakness, stabilizing later as domestic strength from alumina demand offset bearish fundamentals.
Brazil was the exception, with import prices for alumina use rising 3.5% QoQ to US$465.83/mt and up 20.5% YoY, driven by logistical constraints and healthy regional demand. Overall, soft fundamentals and steady supply capped global price momentum, leading to significant corrections in major export hubs.
Caustic soda prices are projected to stay broadly stable for the remainder of 2025, limited by weak consumption and seasonal factors, though strengthening European energy costs offer mild upward pressure.
Average Caustic Soda Prices (US$/mt)
| Markets | Q2 2025 | Q3 2025 | % Change Q3 vs Q2 | Q3 2024 | % Change 2025/2024 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US Gulf Spot Export, FOB | 475.00 | 405.00 | -14.7% | 410.83 | -1.4% |
| Northwest Europe Spot Export, FOB | 508.33 | 426.25 | -16.1% | 482.50 | -11.7% |
| Brazil Import Alumina | 450.00 | 465.83 | 3.5% | 386.67 | 20.5% |
| Australia Alumina Use | 425.00 | 394.17 | -7.3% | 381.67 | 3.3% |
| China Spot Export | 400.83 | 390.00 | -2.7% | 397.50 | -1.9% |
