The third quarter of 2025 saw a well-supplied global bauxite market, with rising shipments and solid Chinese imports. Guinea remained the dominant supplier, accounting for over 15.9 Mt of China’s imports in July and 12.3 Mt in August. Total Guinean shipments reached roughly 117.1 Mt in the first eight months of 2025, up 28.7% year-on-year, while new output from Nimba Mining SA and Axis Minerals posed further downside risks to prices. Australia also expanded supply, with Metro Mining achieving record Q3 shipments of 2.3 Mt from its Bauxite Hills project.

In Q3 2025, global alumina production rose to 36,279 kt, a 2.2% QoQ and 5.3% YoY increase, marking a new record high. Growth was led by Asia, where output climbed 2.4% QoQ to 27,277 kt, driven by fresh capacity in China and rising exports from Indonesia. China added nearly 9.8 Mtpa of new alumina capacity during the first three quarters of the year, pushing production to 21,580 kt, up 0.5% QoQ. New projects in Guangxi and ramp-ups at Jinjiang Group’s PT Borneo Alumindo Prima and Nanshan Group’s Bintan refinery also contributed to the surge.

Global aluminium production rose to 18,801 kt in Q3 2025, up 2.3% QoQ and 1.8% YoY, reflecting broad supply recovery following earlier maintenance curtailments. In China, output increased to 11,125 kt (+2.4% QoQ; +1.2% YoY) as smelters in Yunnan and Inner Mongolia resumed full operations amid stable power conditions and sufficient alumina supply. Although capacity additions have slowed, steady restarts kept national production at near-record levels.

Advanced economies are forecast to expand by 1.6% in 2025, while emerging markets and developing economies (EMDEs) are projected to grow by 4.2%, driven by strong performances in China and India (see Table 1 for projected growth forecasts). In the United States, economic momentum continued into Q3 2025 despite a government shutdown that delayed official GDP data releases. Growth in Q2 was revised upward to 3.8% (seasonally adjusted annualized), supported by robust consumer spending and reduced imports. Signs of cooling appeared late in Q3 as inflation edged up to 3.0% year-on-year (YoY) in September, prompting the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in October. Overall, U.S. GDP is forecast to grow 2.0% in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026, supported by resilient consumption and easing monetary conditions.