Earnings

Gross earnings in the local bauxite/alumina sector amounted to US$151.57 million in Q3 2025, down 4.5% from Q2 and 12.9% lower than Q3 2024. The quarterly decline reflects weaker market prices and softer export volumes, which offset gains from earlier in the year. Despite this downturn, year-to-date gross earnings stood at US$512.52 million, virtually unchanged from the same period in 2024 (−0.1%), supported by strong Q1 performance.

Capital Expenditure

Capital expenditure in the local alumina industry totalled ~US$18.28 million in Q3 2025, registering an increase of 18.0% from the preceding quarter and growth of 70.1% YoY, underscoring strong investment momentum. Expenditure in the sector was driven by ongoing infrastructure projects, such as mud-stacking expansion and haul road upgrades, alongside continued investment focused on asset reliability and modernization.

Oil

The local alumina industry consumed 659,354 barrels of oil in Q3 2025, down 9.7% from Q2 and marginally lower (−0.5%) year-on-year. The decline aligns with reduced alumina output during the quarter and reflects notable shifts in fuel sourcing.

Alumina Exports

Alumina exports totaled 374,266 tonnes in Q3 2025, falling 5.3% from the previous quarter but remaining 12.9% higher year-on-year, reflecting mixed performance across operating refineries. Windalco shipped 98,548 tonnes of alumina, an 11.9% quarterly decline and 9.4% below Q3 2024, reversing part of its strong Q2 rebound. Jamalco accounted for the majority of exports at 275,718 tonnes, down 2.7% quarter-on-quarter but up 23.9% year-on-year, supported by improved output as shipments were severely constrained during this period in 2024 due to Hurricane Beryl’s damage to the refinery’s port facility.

Alumina Production

Domestic alumina production totaled 352,255 tonnes in Q3 2025, down 3.2% from Q2 but 2.0% higher YoY, as the industry’s two active refineries operated at an average rate of 37.8% capacity. The decline was led by the Jamalco refinery (operating at 77% capacity), which recorded a quarterly decrease of 3.2% to 270,269 tonnes, though output remained 8.1% above Q3 2024.

Bauxite Exports

Crude bauxite exports totalled 433,810 tonnes in Q3 2025, down 9.2% from the previous quarter but 12.7% higher YoY. The quarterly decline reflected softer third-party sales to China, partially offset by increased shipments to the Gramercy refinery in the U.S., which helped sustain overall export volumes.

Bauxite Production

Total bauxite production (crude output plus alumina equivalent) reached ~1.47 million tonnes in Q3 2025, down 6.7% from Q2 but 8.8% higher year-on-year. The quarterly decline reflected weaker output across major producers following strong early-year performance.

Natural Gas

LNG prices softened on a quarterly basis in Q3 2025, with Henry Hub spot prices averaging US$3.03/MMBtu, down 5.0% QoQ but still 43.2% higher YoY. The decline reflected sustained production strength, high storage levels, and weaker seasonal power demand, which offset July’s export-driven gains and a modest late-summer rebound in September. Despite robust U.S. LNG exports, domestic oversupply and mild weather conditions continued to cap prices.

Crude Oil

Average crude oil prices edged higher in Q3 2025, marking a cautious recovery after sharp declines in the previous quarter. Early gains were supported by stronger demand, easing geopolitical tensions, and improved trade sentiment. However, mid-quarter softness followed successive OPEC+ output hikes and speculative selling, before late rebounds driven by resilient physical markets, expectations of U.S. rate cuts, and reduced volatility stabilized benchmarks.