Average crude oil prices edged higher in Q3 2025, marking a cautious recovery after sharp declines in the previous quarter. Early gains were supported by stronger demand, easing geopolitical tensions, and improved trade sentiment. However, mid-quarter softness followed successive OPEC+ output hikes and speculative selling, before late rebounds driven by resilient physical markets, expectations of U.S. rate cuts, and reduced volatility stabilized benchmarks.

The OPEC Basket averaged US$70.36/bbl, up 4.3% QoQ but down 6.8% YoY. Brent crude posted a modest 1.4% QoQ increase to US$68.96/bbl, while the U.S. benchmark, WTI (Cushing), saw the strongest quarterly gain, rising 7.3% QoQ to US$65.75/bbl. Both benchmarks declined by more than 13% YoY.

The Energy Information Administration (EIA) foresees continued downside pressure for oil markets as rising production (increased OPEC+ output) and muted demand swell global inventories. Although sanctions on Russia persist, the agency anticipates supply will remain abundant. China’s stockpiling and potential disruptions could temper losses, but the overall trend is expected to be bearish.

Consequently, price expectations for 2026 have been revised slightly upward amid fragile conditions.

Average Prices (US$/bbl) – Crude Oil